Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

RELEASE

PERIOD

ACTUAL

EXPECTED (consensus)

LAST

HIA COMMENT

(leading, coincident, or lagging indicator)

Industrial Production (coincident)

November

0.8%

0.6%

0.1%

Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the US economy, increased the pace of its rebound in November. The manufacturing component of the IP index spiked 1.1%, following a revised flat reading in October.

Capacity Utilization (coincident)

November

71.3%

71.2%

70.7%

CapU moved upward for the fifth consecutive month but remains near record lows and 9.6% below its long term average.

Consumer Price Index (lagging)

November (YoY)

1.8%

1.8%

-0.2%

The figure jumped to show positive growth largely due to higher energy prices.

Consumer Price Index ex- food & energy (lagging)

November (YoY)

1.7%

1.8%

1.7%

The indices for shelter (which comprises about 40% of the total index weight) has posted a slight decline year-over-year, but several other categories are now showing marginal gains.

Housing Starts (leading)

November

574K

575K

529K

Seasonally-adjusted annualized Starts rebounded from October’s -10.6% decline to rise 8.9% month-over-month (10.2% margin of error). Single family Starts were reported to have risen 2.1% (9.2% MoE) over the month. Further, without the seasonal adjustment, year-to-date Starts fell -38.5% in comparison to 2008.
Building Permits (leading)

November

584K

570K

552K

Seasonally-adjusted annualized Permits rebounded from October’s -4.0% decline, rising 6.0% month-over-month; permits for single family residences rose 5.3%.
Leading Economic Indicators (leading)

November

0.9%

0.7%

0.3%

LEI rose for the eighth consecutive month. A sister index, the Coincident Economic Index, has been rising slowly since mid-year.

The apparent stabilization in the manufacturing sector, while its unclear that it’s created jobs, is a tick in the positive column for the US economy. The Industrial Production figures reversed directions in November from their October readings.  The overall IP reading, which slowed in October to 0.0%, rose substantially. Likewise, the reading on mining output jumped after a negative reading last month, while utilities output showed  a sharp decline after rising in October. While expansion was broad-based, November’s gain was largely due to an 2.1% increase in output of the nation’s mines.

Factory capacity utilization remains extremely low and is especially weak in the manufacturing sector, which had a utilization rate of only 68.4% in November. A look at the utilization for the different stages of production shows clearly where the weakness lies:

  • Crude stage = 85.2%, 1.4% below the long-term average
  • Primary / semifinished stage = 67.4%, 14.2% below the long-term average
  • Finished stage = 70.0%, 7.7% below the long-term average

While a high degree of spare capacity means inflation is unlikely in the near-term, it also suggests that companies’ profit margins have not sustained the degree of pressure they have seen in prior recessions.

The renewal of the $8000 first-time homebuyer tax credit probably contributed to the rebound in single family housing starts and permits.  Also, multifamily construction swung back to an increase after last month’s plummet.

The month-over-month change in CPI was once again largely driven by energy costs; according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the 4.1% rise in the energy component of the index, the largest since August, accounted for most of the “headline” index increase. While the “core” CPI has crept up from its probable cycle low of 1.4% in August, full-blown inflation has yet to appear. The “core” rate remains at a historically moderate level and there are few signs of pricing power at the retail level.

The Leading Economic Indicators continued their positive trajectory for the eighth consecutive month.  We’ll surely welcome any legitimate good economic news.  However, the most heavily weighted component, money supply (specifically M2), has exploded as the government has flooded the economy with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Unfortunately, little of that liquidity is being transmitted into the real economy, as bank lending is contracting – total loans and leases at US commercial banks fell by 6.4%, from $7,238B to $6,777B, from last November to this. It is, of course, actual lending to businesses and consumers that fuels the economy, not simply the existence of the funds on bank balance sheets.  Other LEI components, like the “interest rate spread”, are suspect in their usefulness because this recession, stemming from a banking crisis and fueled by massive consumer deleveraging that has required that short term interest rates be held abnormally low,  is quite different than other post-WW2 downturn.  Long story short, we think the LEI is giving a false signal of the strength of economic recovery.

Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

FOMC Maintains “Extended Period” and Purchase Programs
Liquidity Programs Winding Down

The FOMC statement met expectations by maintaining its expectation that the Fed will leave rates low for an “extended period,” continuing its securities purchase plans, and upgrading its assessment of the economy. The most notable addition to the announcement was a full paragraph detailing the end of the Fed’s liquidity programs. While that announcement was not a surprise, it serves as a handy reminder to market participants.

Although the Fed upgraded its assessment of the economy, its concern about the future path is evidenced in its continuation of accommodation.

In addition to completing the purchase of approximately $175 billion in agency debt securities and $1.25 billion in mortgage securities by the end of Q1, the Fed said it will continue gradually slowing its purchases under those programs.

Dec 15th

“Hey Jude”

Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

If you’re a Beatles fan, management consultant or process engineer (we’re the former) we hope you enjoy the attached analysis.

hey_jude

Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

RELEASE

PERIOD

ACTUAL

EXPECTED (consensus)

LAST

HIA COMMENT

(leading, coincident, or lagging indicator)

Consumer Credit, billions (lagging)

October

($3.50)

($8.80)

($14.80)

Consumer credit shrank to a lesser degree than expected in October. September’s figure was revised $6B higher, to $8.7B.

Trade Balance (lagging)

October

-$32.9B

-$36.4B

-$36.5B

The trade gap narrowed on strength in exports, driven by a weaker US Dollar, and a drop in imports.

Advance Retail Sales (leading)

November

1.3%

0.9%

1.4%

Excluding auto sales, retail sales rose 1.2%.

Consumer spending on credit was sharply divided again in October, as non-revolving credit, such as auto loans, grew 2.6% while revolving credit like credit cards continued to fall.  The revolving component is now down by $87B from its September 2008 peak.

The less-negative trade deficit will provide a numerical boost to 4Q09 GDP growth. Weakness in petroleum imports provided a boost, as did the 12% decline in the US Dollar since its recent high in March. The key takeaway here is a slow resurgence in the strength of the US export sector.

Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials retail sales have risen for four months, suggesting that the worst may be behind us. The biggest gainers during November were gasoline stations (+6.0%) and electronics & appliance stores (+2.8%). The biggest laggards included miscellaneous store retailers (-1.8%) and furniture & home furnishings (-0.7%).

Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

Many of us use multiple methods of communicating with friends, family, coworkers and others. Managing the information flow from these “time-saving” technologies sometimes seems as though it requires a management tool. To wit, I offer the below chart describing the hierarchy into which various technological distractions seem to fall (from InformationIsBeautiful.net).

hierarchy_distractions_960

Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

RELEASE

PERIOD

ACTUAL

EXPECTED (consensus)

LAST

HIA COMMENT

(leading, coincident, or lagging indicator)

ISM Manufacturing Index (leading)

November

53.6

55.0

55.7

Manufacturing sector continued to expand last month, although at a slower pace than in October.
Construction Spending (leading)

October (MoM)

0.00%

-0.40%

0.80%

Construction spending was sharply higher than expected for October but a large downward revision to September (+0.8% to -1.6%) more than offset.
ISM Non-manufactur-ing Composite (leading)

November

48.7

52.0

50.6

The ISM’s non-manufacturing index unexpectedly fell in November. Importantly, however, the new orders component of the Index continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than in October.
Unemploy-ment Rate (lagging)

November

10.00%

10.20%

10.20%

Unemployment rate unexpectely eased. According to the Household Survey the number of unemployed Americans reached 15.4 million in November; this number has risen by 7.9 million since the official beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Nonfarm Payrolls (lagging)

November

-11K

-100K

-190K

The seasonally adjusted data show a drop in employment in all categories except Education & Healthcare, Government and Professional and Business Services. The “birth/death” model used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate jobs created or lost by opening or closing firms “created” 30K jobs in November.

ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX

Growth appeared in 13 of 16 industries surveyed.  Importantly, new orders accelerated, but the order backlog grew at a slower pace, as did production and employment. Inventories continued to be drawn down.  All in all, continued growth in manufacturing, which represents a small minority of US economic activity, is welcome, but it appears firms are using their improved efficiency to push more products out the door rather than hiring.

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING

Construction activity continues to diverge; residential spending grew (notwithstanding a large drop in September) but nonresidential and government spending fell.  Construction spending figures have followed this pattern since at least this past summer.

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX

The Index moved back below 50, indicating a contraction of the critical service sector. Continued expansion of the new orders component is encouraging; growth was seen in construction, information, healthcare and finance industries. However, the Index’s employment component remains dismal.

EMPLOYMENT SITUATION

The most closely-watched economic release of the week (and the month) was today’s Employment Situation. It’s somewhat confusing because it contains data from two surveys, the Household and the Establishment, that are conducted differently and therefore provide different estimates. Also, each Survey shows both Seasonally Adjusted and Not Seasonally Adjusted data, so getting a read on what’s actually happening is challenging. The “headline” numbers are the Unemployment Rate from the Household Survey and the Nonfarm Payrolls figure from the Establishment Survey, both of which are seasonally adjusted. For a broader discussion of the Employment Situation data, see our Economic Insight research entitled “Fun With Numbers” released 5 September 09.

Household Survey

Adjusted for seasonal variations, the Household Survey data showed that the number of unemployed persons fell by 325K during November, regaining some of October’s 558K rise.  According to this Survey the number of unemployed Americans has risen by 7.9 million since the beginning of the recession.  Companies have clearly shifted some work to from full-timers to part-timers; full-time workers have declined by 7.4 million over the past year while part-time workers have increased by 1.8 million. Multiple job-holders remained basically flat at about 5% of the total employed. The average duration of unemployment rose to 28.5 weeks – over 6 months – with an alarming 38.3% of unemployed Americans remaining unemployed 27 weeks or longer. The broadest measure of unemployment, which includes “marginally attached” and “discouraged” workers, fell to 17.2% from 17.5% in October.

According to the Household Survey the unemployment rate for manufacturing jobs rose to 12.5%, and for construction, to 19.4%. The unemployment rate for government workers was 3.4%.

Establishment Survey

The seasonally adjusted Establishment Survey data showed declines in all major private industry groups except Professional and Business Services (+86K, driven largely by increases in administrative businesses) and Education and Healthcare (+40K, with gains in all but one sub-category). Government employment totals rose slightly from October, with gains in Federal employment offsetting losses at the state level. The largest declines were in Construction (-60K) and Manufacturing (-41K).

The “birth/death” model used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate jobs created or lost by opening or closing firms “created” 30K jobs in October.

Positively, average hourly earnings rose to $18.74 in November, up $0.01 from October and $0.41 from a year ago. Gains were broad-based, with declines from year-ago earnings in only a handful of non-durable manufacturing industries.

The average work-week, while remaining very short on a historical basis, rose 0.2 hours to 33.2 hours. The longest work-weeks were recorded in Mining & Logging and Petroleum & Coal  Products (43.1 hours), Transportation Equipment (42.5 hours) and Paper Products (42.9 hours). The shortest hours were, unsurprisingly, in Leisure & Hospitality (24.7 hours), Retail (29.9 hours) and Education & Healthcare (32.1 hours).

Analysis

The Establishment Survey has a “large company” bias, which is why the “birth/death model” is used.  Given the importance of small businesses in our economy, we believe (and the historical record would suggest) that these businesses are the “canary in the coalmine” of domestic economic activity, since they have less cash on the balance sheet, less access to credit, and less exposure to overseas markets than large companies. Consequently, we prefer to emphasize the Household Survey in our analyses.

Today’s unexpectedly positive report could be due, in part, to seasonal adjustment factors. Unemployment was accelerating during the 4Q08, which may have generated unusually high adjustments depending on the methodology the BLS uses.

Today’s is the first monthly Employment Situation report we’ve felt contained even the smallest modicum of encouraging news.  While one month’s data clearly doesn’t suggest a trend, we’re encouraged by:

  • A seasonally-adjusted month-over-month gain of 227K jobs according to the Household Survey. Unadjusted for seasonal factors the gain was 44K.
  • The decline in the broadest measure of under- and unemployment.
  • Lengthening of the average work-week from the record low of the past two months.
  • A slow but continued rise in average hourly earnings.

Harmonic continues to believe that employment is the linchpin of the economic cycle. When unemployment moderates so that consumers feel more secure, they’re likely to feel more comfortable spending rather than saving. While consumer spending data have shown recent “green shoots” we worry that without the support of income through job creation debt levels will remain unsustainably high, delaying an organic and robust economic recovery.

Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics today released October 2009 Unemployment data for the 372 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) it surveys. According to the BLS the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Boise-Nampa MSA was 9.7% for the month of October, an increase of 3.9% from October 2008. Over that period, the number of unemployed workers in the Boise area employment rose by 11,000, from 17,000 to 28,000, while the labor force shrank from 293,200 to 287,200.

2009-12-02_1410

At 9.7% Boise’s unemployment rate was higher than the national and state average and other areas surveyed within the state.

2009-12-02_1412

The smallest year-over-year change was seen in Manhattan KS (+0.5%), Bismarck ND (+0.6%) and Grand Forks ND (+0.7%), while the largest changes were in Detroit (+7.3%), Rockford IL (+6.2%) and Peoria IL (+6.1%).

In October, 238 MSAs had lower unemployment rates than Boise; Bismarck ND (2.8%), Grand Forks ND (3.5%) and Fargo ND (3.5%) were the lowest nationally. The highest were El Centro CA (30.0%) and Yuma AZ (23.5%).

2009-12-02_1420

Author: Chris

Comments: 0

“That Investment Will Cost Me How Much?!?”

The first in a three part series on mutual funds.

Part I: The High Cost of Mutual Fund Investing

While few would say that saving money is a bad idea, it may surprise many investors how expensive it can be to save.  Mutual fund companies, and investors that buy mutual funds, tend to focus on which funds have recently out-performed the market or have the best return relative to their peers.  There’s unfortunately little discussion about costs, the drag fees have on mutual fund performance and the real costs to buy and hold a mutual fund long-term.  Compounding this problem is the fact that most brokers/sales agents/bankers typically can’t or don’t want to explain fees, since their income is tied to the sale of the fund.  The fact is, the cost of ownership can weigh heavily on a mutual fund’s overall performance and comes in the form of three distinct fees.

  • Loads
  • Expense Ratios
  • 12b-1 Fees

Loads

In mutual fund jargon, a “load” is the commission you’re charged by a broker to purchase or sell a mutual fund.  Mutual funds may carry a “front-load” (a charge to purchase), or a “back-end load” (a charge to sell).  According to Morningstar (an investment research firm specializing in fund investing), the average commission paid by investors to purchase front-loaded mutual funds is 5.75% of their initial investment.  That’s money that went to the mutual fund company before any of it was invested.   These fees are used to pay the broker/agent their commission and to pay the broker/agent’s company for using that particular fund in a portfolio.   Back-end loaded mutual funds have a tiered fee schedule if you sell the fund within a certain time frame (schedules and time frames vary by fund company). 

Expense Ratios

Expense ratios are the annual costs associated with operating the mutual fund, including paying the people managing the fund and administrative costs.  Morningstar’s research shows that the median average expense ratio for a front-loaded Large Cap mutual fund is 1.22%.  The average expense ratio on Small-Cap and Developing Markets funds average 1.45% and 1.80% respectively.     

12b-1 Fees

12b-1 fees are annual fees used to pay the broker/agent that sold you the fund for as long as you hold it, and to pay marketing and distribution costs.   12b-1 fees average .25% annually.  Unlike “loads”, expense ratios and 12b-1 fees are ongoing, not one-time charges, and can vary from year to year based on the fund’s prospectus.

A Less Expensive Alternative to Mutual Funds: Exchange-traded Funds

When you look at the cost of owning a mutual fund, you may be surprised to see what you are actually paying and what those costs can do to the long-term performance of your portfolio.   The high cost to investors is one reason Harmonic doesn’t use mutual funds to invest for its clients.  To achieve the diversification and liquidity offered by mutual funds without paying the high costs, we use exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  Most ETFs track specific indexes, such as the S&P 500, Russell 2000 or Morgan Stanley’s Europe, Australasia and Far East (EAFE) Index.  Importantly, there are no up-front or back-end “loads” or 12b-1 fees charged by exchange-traded funds.  ETF’s do incur trade commissions and have expense ratios, but they are a fraction of what a comparative mutual fund would charge.

To get some real numbers behind these statistics, investors can use the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s (FINRA) Fund Analyzer, a free website that analyzes the expenses of over 18,000 stocks and ETF’s. 

 The site makes it easy to view an “apples-to-apples” comparison between a mutual fund and an ETF with similar investment goals.  Below we’ve constructed a hypothetical scenario of investing $10,000 for 10 years; we’ve assumed an 8% average annualized return on both investments.   FINRA’s Fund Analyzer combines the expense ratios and 12b-1 fees into a line item entitled Total Fees.  The Total Sales Charges are the front-end loads.

Comparing an arbitrarily chosen Large Cap Blend mutual fund to a Large Cap ETF (AIM’s Large Cap Basic Value, LCBAX, and Vanguard’s Large Cap ETF, VV) the difference in Total Fees & Sales Charges is striking!   We’re working on the charts, but in the meantime, by clicking on the table below you will taken to FINRA’s website for a clearer picture of this information.  Under the scenario described above the AIM fund would cost the investor a total of $2,282 vs. $194 for the ETF over an identical 10 year period. 

 etf vs mutual fund

All other things being equal, wouldn’t you rather have the $2,088 ($2,282-$194) working to help you achieve your goal, rather than paid to brokers and spent on sales and marketing?   You may think these investment choices were cherry picked, but the truth is, this example is not so unusual.  The bottom line is—mutual funds can be expensive.   In the above example, the 10 year cost of ownership is nearly 23% of the initial investment vs. just under 2% for the ETF!

Play around with the tool using your own portfolio of funds or better yet, talk to us to help you find ways to save money on your investment choices.   We’re happy to review your portfolio holdings at no cost and let you know exactly what you have been or are currently being charged for the investments you hold.

There are a number of online resources available to investors who’d like to learn more about exchange-traded funds; we’ve found ishares.com, Vanguard.com, sectorspdr.com and Morningstar.com particularly helpful.   Visit Finra.org for more information about The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).