Author: Kenn Lamson

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SOURCE: http://thisisindexed.com/

Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

SOURCE: VisualEconomics.com

Author: Chris

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Author: Kenn Lamson

Comments: 0

The major US stock market indices were solidly in the red for the week ending May 7th, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrals and  NASDAQ falling -6.4%, -5.7% and -8.0% respectively for the week. US markets had an easier go of it than those in Europe however; Britain, France and Germany saw their main stock market indices fall -11.8%, -14.7% and -10.6% over the week in US$ terms. The beleaguered Greek stock market saw its market composite index drop another -16.3% to cap a -34.0% year-to-date slide in US$ terms.

The market tone has clearly shifted over the past couple of weeks to one of discomfort; the focus has shifted from solid 1Q10 corporate earnings that have come in better than expected in most cases, and broadly positive economic data, to center on turmoil in Greece and the European Union.  Greece’s predicament has been known for months but the market’s negative reaction to last week’s downgrade of Greece’s debt is a prime example of the old stock market adage “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

The week’s highlight (or low-light) was Thursday’s brief downward spike in stock prices. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average had trended lower since the opening of the trading day, around 2:30PM eastern time the Index registered a drop of about 1000 points, and a rebound of about 700 points moments later. Similar action was observed on other US indices like the S&P500 and NASDAQ.  Initial reports today call the spike downward a computer glitch, but like a momentary power outage on an aircraft flying at 35,000 feet, that kind of “oops” is simply unacceptable.  Look for renewed scrutiny and possible restrictions on high frequency trading and other computerized trading.

 

Given the week’s overall poor performance, the sector level returns were predictable. Cyclical sectors that benefit from economic growth, such as Consumer Discretionary and Industrials, were the hardest hit. Defensive sectors, such as Consumer Staples and Healthcare, showed negative returns for the week but much less so than their more cyclical peers.

 

CHART: Bloomberg

We are concerned that the breakdown in the markets that began around the end of April may have further distance to go on the downside.  Breadth and other internal market readings have been supportive, as have the aforementioned earnings reports; to our eyes, though, the market had become a bit speculative and sentiment over-bullish of late. The lack of a resolution to Greece’s fiscal problem (and potentially those of other nations) seems to have been the trigger the market needed to pause in its 13 month climb off the recession low.

To close with a bit of positive news, Dr. Pepper Snapple Group was up almost 10% on the week as the company beat its earnings expectations and raised its forecast. Reminds me of their old slogan “wouldn’t you like to be a Pepper”…

Author: Kenn Lamson

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The week ending 7 May 2010 saw indicators that were, on balance, positive for the US economy.  Consumer spending grew handily (albeit at the expense of the savings rate) and consumer-level inflation remained tame. Manufacturing continued to be the US’s dominant economic driver, even signaling improving employment within the sector. The bottom line for the ISM Manufacturing Index was that production hasn’t kept pace with demand and manufacturers are ramping up employment. The much larger service sector, however, grew at a much slower pace.  With a few caveats, the monthly unemployment figures also appeared stronger than expected, with the Household Survey confirming the headline Establishment Survey’s report of job gains; especially important to see were gains in the work week, hourly earnings and temporary jobs.  Tempering the positive news was that the percentage of “long-term unemployed” hit almost 46% and that the most comprehensive measure of under- and unemployment rose to 17.1%. Consumer credit rose marginally, following the pattern of past months in which credit card-type credit declined but non-revolving, such as auto loans, rose.

A couple of other data points rose to the surface this week that bear mentioning. 

  • Weak loan demand and poor credit availability have hamstrung large segments of the US economy, particularly impeding the ability of small businesses and households to rebound from the recession. The recently released Federal Reserve’s survey of senior loan officers showed little change in credit conditions during 1Q10:
    • Most banks kept their lending standards unchanged but a small and shrinking net fraction tightened standards.
    • Like 4Q09, banks reporting having eased standards in 1Q10 were large banks, and they apparently lent predominantly to large- and middle-market firms; small banks on balance tightened standards and lending to small businesses remained very weak.
    • Similarly, large banks reported better availability of mortgage and non-revolving credit to households but tighter standards for credit cards; small banks tightened standards across the board.
    • Loan demand in 1Q10 was reported to have generally weakened.
  • The EU/IMF bailout of Greece generated urgent headlines, with national leaders, economists and citizens in a seeming shoving match while “Athens burns.” While it’s been clear for months that Greece was in serious financial trouble, Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Greek debt on Tuesday 27 April seemed to catch the financial markets off guard and put a match to the fuse the resulted in a stomach-churning week in the markets.  We believe investors should pay close attention to the bailout – or not – of Greece because of:
    • its likely depressive effect on the European countries providing the bailout funds, many of which are major US trading partners
    • the potential contagion effect of similarly weak countries requiring or demanding a bailout
    • the fact that US taxpayer funds are contributed to the IMF.

Whether the abuser is an individual, family, a company, a municipality or nation, fiscal irresponsibility — especially the overuse of debt – usually ends poorly. Greece is the most recent and largest example, but we fear it will not be the last.

RELEASE (leading, coincident or lagging indicator) PERIOD ACTUAL EXPECTED (consensus) LAST HIA COMMENT
Consumer Spending (leading) March (MoM) +0.6% +0.6% +0.3% Personal spending in March rose at twice the pace of personal income while inflation, as measured by the PCE deflator, remained a non-issue.
ISM Manufacturing Index (leading) April 60.4 61.0 59.6 In April the manufacturing sector expanded for the eighth consecutive month to its highest level since July 2004, although the Index failed to meet consensus expectations.
ISM Services Index (leading)  April 55.4 56.4 55.4 The ISM services index remained in growth territory. The important new orders component gave up some of March’s jump.
Unemployment Rate (lagging) April 9.9% 9.6% 9.7% Unemployment rate rose as the number of Americans in the workforce rose more than the number of new hires. The Household Survey showed a employment +550K gain.
Nonfarm Payrolls (lagging) April +290K +200K +162K Less the Birth/Death adjustment and the new Census workers, payrolls rose about +40K. The average work week rose by +0.1 hours and average hourly earnings rose by +$0.01.
Consumer Credit (lagging) March +$2.0B -$3.0B -$11.5 B Incentive-driven car sales apparently accounted for March’s increase in outstanding consumer credit.

                                                                                                                                            

CONSUMER SPENDING

 

Personal Income (red) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (yellow), $MM; Personal Savings (white), % of Disposable Personal Income

GRAPH: Bloomberg

ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX

 

GRAPH: ISM

ISM SERVICES INDEX

 

GRAPH: ISM

EMPLOYMENT SITUATION

 

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

GRAPH: Bloomberg

 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS

GRAPH: Bloomberg

CONSUMER CREDIT

 

CONSUMER CREDIT, $B (white), 3mo moving avg (red); 4/30/07 – 3/31/10

GRAPH: Bloomberg

 

Author: Chris

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Join us May 20th from 5-6:30PM at the Surprise Valley Farmhouse to hear Kevin and Kenn discuss their thoughts on the markets, the economy and the benefits of working with an independent advisor. 

Each attendee will be given a coupon for discounted tickets to any 2010 Idaho Shakespeare Festival Performance!

Keep an eye out for the postcard invitation in your mailbox and we look forward to seeing you May 20th. 

 

Author: Chris

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See Kenn’s short interview concerning the economic turmoil in Greece.

Author: Chris

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Courtesy of Forefield

Handling Market Volatility

Conventional wisdom says that what goes up, must come down. But even if you view market volatility as a normal occurrence, it can be tough to handle when it’s your money at stake. Though there’s no foolproof way to handle the ups and downs of the stock market, the following common sense tips can help.

Don’t put your eggs all in one basket

Diversifying your investment portfolio is one of the key ways you can handle market volatility. Because asset classes often perform differently under different market conditions, spreading your assets across a variety of investments such as stocks, bonds, and cash alternatives (e.g., money market funds, CDs, and other short-term instruments), has the potential to help reduce your overall risk. Ideally, a decline in one type of asset will be balanced out by a gain in another, but diversification can’t eliminate the possibility of market loss.

One way to diversify your portfolio is through asset allocation. Asset allocation involves identifying the asset classes that are appropriate for you and allocating a certain percentage of your investment dollars to each class (e.g., 70 percent to stocks, 20 percent to bonds, 10 percent to cash alternatives). An easy way to decide on an appropriate mix of investments is to use a worksheet or an interactive tool that suggests a model or sample allocation based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance level, and investment time horizon.

Focus on the forest, not on the trees

As the market goes up and down, it’s easy to become too focused on day-to-day returns. Instead, keep your eyes on your long-term investing goals and your overall portfolio. Although only you can decide how much investment risk you can handle, if you still have years to invest, don’t overestimate the effect of short-term price fluctuations on your portfolio.

Look before you leap

When the market goes down and investment losses pile up, you may be tempted to pull out of the stock market altogether and look for less volatile investments. The small returns that typically accompany low-risk investments may seem attractive when more risky investments are posting negative returns.

But before you leap into a different investment strategy, make sure you’re doing it for the right reasons. How you choose to invest your money should be consistent with your goals and time horizon.

For instance, putting a larger percentage of your investment dollars into vehicles that offer safety of principal and liquidity (the opportunity to easily access your funds) may be the right strategy for you if your investment goals are short-term (e.g., you’ll need the money soon to buy a house) or if you’re growing close to reaching a long-term goal such as retirement. But if you still have years to invest, keep in mind that stocks have historically outperformed stable value investments over time, although past performance is no guarantee of future results. If you move most or all of your investment dollars into conservative investments, you’ve not only locked in any losses you might have, but you’ve also sacrificed the potential for higher returns.

Look for the silver lining

A down market, like every cloud, has a silver lining. The silver lining of a down market is the opportunity you have to buy shares of stock at lower prices.

One of the ways you can do this is by using dollar cost averaging. With dollar cost averaging, you don’t try to “time the market” by buying shares at the moment when the price is lowest. In fact, you don’t worry about price at all. Instead, you invest a specific amount of money at regular intervals over time.

When the price is higher, your investment dollars buy fewer shares of stock, but when the price is lower, the same dollar amount will buy you more shares.

For example, let’s say that you decided to invest $300 each month towards your child’s college education. As the illustration shows, your regular monthly investment of $300 bought more shares when the price was low and fewer shares when the price was high:

Although dollar cost averaging can’t guarantee you a profit or avoid a loss, a regular fixed dollar investment may result in a lower average price per share over time, assuming you continue to invest through all types of markets. You should consider your financial and emotional ability to make ongoing purchases, regardless of price fluctuations, however.

(This hypothetical example is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any particular investment. Actual results will vary.)

Don’t stick your head in the sand

While focusing too much on short-term gains or losses is unwise, so is ignoring your investments. You should check up on your portfolio at least once a year, more frequently if the market is particularly volatile or when there have been significant changes in your life. You may need to rebalance your portfolio to bring it back in line with your investment goals and risk tolerance. A financial professional can help you decide which investment options are right for you.

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch

As the market recovers from a down cycle, elation quickly sets in. If the upswing lasts long enough, it’s easy to believe that investing in the stock market is a sure thing. But, of course, it never is. As many investors have learned the hard way, becoming overly optimistic about investing during the good times can be as detrimental as worrying too much during the bad times. The right approach during all kinds of markets is to be realistic. Have a plan, stick with it, and strike a comfortable balance between risk and return.

Author: Kenn Lamson

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From the NYT, hat tip to Ritholtz.com: