Jul 28th

Fool’s Gold

Author: Kenn Lamson

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An interesting bit of financial journalism, courtesy of The Big Picture:

Infographic by The Big Picture

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Author: Kenn Lamson

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The exchange between Churchill & Lady Astor:
She said, “If you were my husband I’d poison your tea.”
He said, “If you were my wife, I’d drink it.”

A member of Parliament to Disraeli: “Sir, you will either die on the gallows or of some unspeakable disease.”
“That depends, Sir,”
said Disraeli, “whether I embrace your policies or your mistress.”

“He had delusions of adequacy.” – Walter Kerr

“He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire.”  - Winston Churchill

“I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure.” Clarence Darrow

“He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary.” – William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway).

“Thank you for sending me a copy of your book; I’ll waste no time reading it.” – Moses Hadas

“I didn’t attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.” – Mark Twain

“He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends.” –  Oscar Wilde

“I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend…. if you have one.” – George Bernard Shaw to Winston Churchill
“Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second.. if there is one.” – Winston Churchill, in response.

“I feel so miserable without you; it’s almost like having you here.” – Stephen Bishop

“He is a self-made man and worships his creator.” – John Bright

“I’ve just learned about his illness. Let’s hope it’s nothing  trivial.” – Irvin S. Cobb

“He is not only dull himself; he is the cause of dullness in  others.” – Samuel Johnson

“He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up.” – Paul Keating

“In order to avoid being called a flirt, she always yielded easily.” – Charles, Count Talleyrand

“Some  cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go.” – Oscar Wilde

“He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts… for support  rather than illumination.” – Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

“He has Van Gogh’s ear for music.” – Billy Wilder

“I’ve had a perfectly wonderful evening. But this wasn’t it.” –  Groucho Marx

Hat Tip -> Investment Postcards

Author: Kenn Lamson

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The Economist recently published an outstanding series of articles on the financial tool that “got us in this fine mess” — too much debt. The articles discuss the Western attraction to debt financing, especially over the past 25 years; and the Economist’s editors’ view on the changes (policy and otherwise) that are required to extract ourselves from the quagmire. The Leader article is here; other articles in the series are here,  here, here, here,  and here.

The online version provides an interactive chart showing debt burden by country.

Our thesis is that strong, sustainable economic growth is very unlikely so long as the US consumer is unwinding the debt load racked up since the 80s. The consumer spending that would fuel this growth is, in turn, unlikely with stubbornly high unemployment. The recent and expected sharp growth in governmental debt is a special case, of course, because with it could come the specter of inflation and much higher interest rates. As consumer debt is paid down or defaulted on, and sovereign debt rises, from our point of view there’s a very narrow path between the deflation frying pan and the inflation fire.

Author: Kenn Lamson

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It’s well known (at least in certain circles) that sell-side equity analysts are perpetually over-bullish about the companies they follow. I’ll leave speculation to others regarding the psychological reasons behind that overconfidence, but the chart below speaks to the consistency with which this phenomenon has appeared.

Courtesy of McKinsey & Co., hat tip Ritholtz.com

Jul 06th

Job Creation

Author: Kenn Lamson

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Courtesy of Chart of the Day, we’re reminded that job creation during this recession has been far slower than in those since WW2.