Author: Kenn Lamson

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Harmonic uses Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs) heavily in its construction of asset allocation-driven portfolios for our clients. Because of this fact we felt compelled to comment on a recent tempest-in-a-teapot:

CNBC reported on Wednesday 22 September about a Bogan Associates research piece that suggested that ETFs can collapse if they’re subject to heavy naked short selling. Unfortunately, CNBC suggested this frightening possibility without actually verifying its accuracy, as such an outcome is basically impossible.

Two pieces, one from fund analyst Morningstar and the other from online index fund blog IndexUniverse.com, do a good job of explaining why: In short, if the shares are lent out (to a short-seller), they won’t be redeemed by the ETF provider. That language is included in the legal documents that create the ETF (the Statement of Additional Information).

Author: Kenn Lamson

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In our recent client letter and e-newsletter we stated our expectation of a rocky third quarter for the stock markets. Courtesy of Chart Of The Day comes a graph that supports that view from a historical perspective.

Author: Kenn Lamson

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As an investment and economic research firm we spend a great deal of our time poring over data and reading news and considering the analysis of specialists and industry leaders. Here’s a brief list of items we’ve read recently that our readers may find interesting:

Author: Kenn Lamson

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Dear Clients and Friends,

The second quarter of 2010 saw Boise’s longest and dampest Spring in memory, at least in ours.  Cool temperatures and intermittent rain seemed to abate only with the Independence Day weekend.  That 2Q10 weather seems quite a long time ago as I sit in my office hunkered down like a lizard from Boise’s foothills, watching the heat waves ripple off streets and rooftops in the distance, our office’s hurricane force air conditioner roaring above my head. 

Likewise the economy and markets, which seemed to have made liars out of the few (including Kevin and Kenn) who remained skeptical of the gargantuan run-up in stock prices amid talk of “V-shaped” recoveries and “green shoots,” shifted into a very different environment during 2Q10.

Rather than dive right into a discussion of the economy and markets, though, we’ll start this quarter’s letter with a few more mundane items.

“Around The Office”

As has become commonplace, Harmonic was featured in the local press over the past few months, with Kenn being interviewed on local television and Kevin was quoted regarding Micron Technologies in the Idaho Statesman.   And of course, we released research on a range of economic and investing topics including our market view, reviews of Boise and Idaho economic statistics and analysis of the never-ending stream of national economic data.  Feel free to contact us or visit HarmonicAdvisors.com to review our research.

Harmonic has expanded its internship program to three students this summer, for the first time including a promising recent high school graduate.  James Marria graduated from Boise’s Bishop Kelly high school (where Kevin’s kids have attended) and will be attending Claremont College this fall.  Our other two interns are seniors majoring in finance at Boise State University: Jody Hilliard and Shevket Selimshayev (a.k.a. Shev) are doing some top notch work for us on projects on which we needed an extra set or two of hands.

We’re pleased to note that Vu Ngo and Brad Weigle, who interned with us in the Spring, found full-time employment (the paying kind, unlike their internships with Harmonic!) in the Boise area.

Economic and Market Review and Outlook

We wrote in our 2Q09 client letter that we expected the stock market advance to be less explosive than after previous recessions because the economic recovery would be quite muted. It’s fair to say that we grossly underestimated the fervor for speculation when money’s cheap and the government has virtually assured a taxpayer-funded backstop for bankers and investors who get themselves in trouble. In our defense, though, we got the second half of that assertion correct. The consensus has joined Harmonic in questioning the strength of the economic recovery and consequently the reasonableness of stock prices that rose 80%+ from their March 2009 low.

As the economic problems in the Eurozone revealed themselves and domestic economic indicators showed slowing growth, the US equity markets began to tumble April 27th 2010. They caught themselves in early July after paring about 17% from their value; for the quarter the S&P500 was down -11.86%. The “sharp sudden break downward” we forecast in our 1Q10 client letter, and many other writings and conversations, at long last arrived.

Since the most recent stock market high, volatility has been exceptional, with the S&P500 rising or falling over 1% an extraordinary 30 of 66 trading days during the second quarter. Many investors, including yours truly, are uncomfortable committing capital in such wobbly times, which explains the higher-than-normal cash balances that some of our clients currently see in their portfolios.

We think it’s likely that the market “trades sideways” with higher than normal volatility for the next several years, which suggests that investors should become more tactical in their approach rather than pursuing a buy-and-hold strategy.

On the economic front, for all of our scoffing at the idea of a “V-shaped” recovery, in the ongoing debate over whether US economic growth is simply slowing marginally or will experience a “double-dip” recession, we come down on the side of the former. It’s clear growth has slowed dramatically but our research suggests that the nation’s economy won’t relapse into negative growth.

We continue to repeat our steady refrain of the past 21 months, however: The developed economies’ malaise is a debt-reduction, balance sheet driven downturn that’s likely to linger for years, not the run-of-the-mill inventory / employment based correction typical of the post WW2 period.

An interesting albeit frustrating feature of this downturn, and one that fools casual observers into believing the economy’s closer to “all’s well” than “batten down the hatches”, is that the economy is now more than ever one of “haves” versus “have-nots.”  Large companies, which are predominantly those represented in the government economic data, are faring much better than their smaller brethren; lending statistics show that bank lending is substantially freer to large firms than small. Similarly, large banks seem to be doing much better than their community bank competitors. Another dichotomy is between businesses, which have as a group solidified their balance sheets by hoarding cash and reducing debt (and of course paring human capital) and consumers, a far larger segment of the economy that that has only just begun the balance sheet mending process.

In an environment of low economic growth and the ever-present specter of a deflationary spiral, low bond yields and uninspiring capital appreciation of stocks suggests that income will return to the fore as a driver of investor returns. Where appropriate we’ve begun to tip portfolios towards higher cash returns, believing, to paraphrase an old saying, “A dollar in the pocket’s worth two in the market.”

Investment Performance

The glow from our top-tier 2009 investment performance faded quickly: In a 24/7/365 market and economy there’s no resting on one’s laurels. We’re pleased to report that Harmonic’s Large-cap Core, Smid-cap Core and All-cap core stock strategies outperformed their respective benchmarks again in second quarter. That they did so while assuming less risk than their respective benchmarks is especially noteworthy.

We’re also pleased that most of our private client portfolios beat their benchmarks during 2Q10, in no small part because of the conservative positioning we’ve mentioned many times.

Since the portfolios were already positioned for what we believed was the inevitable reversion towards fundamental value, we made few adjustments to portfolio structures during the second quarter. However, as the market seemed to right itself in July we began to selectively take advantage of more realistic valuations.

We would not be surprised, though, if the markets temblors continue as the calendar moves into the mid-term election season.

“Speaking of Candidates…”

As we’ve noted in previous letters, referrals from clients and friends are the lifeblood of our business; your kind words are our only advertisement.  Referrals to Harmonic of your friends, acquaintances, coworkers and family members are the highest compliment and are greatly appreciated.  Thanks in no small part to those referrals, our ”Assets Under Management” total has continued to expand.   We’ve also been asked to present proposals to several leading Idaho nonprofit organizations, have had some very encouraging conversations with institutional consultants about our stock strategies and have enjoyed a steady stream of new private clients.  As always, we hope you’ll feel free to forward our commentaries, and this letter, to those whom we may be able to assist.

As a reminder, Harmonic focuses on the following private client types:

  • Nonprofits
  • Profit-sharing plans
  • Investors whose retirement investments are in transition or in need of organization or optimization
  • Investors who’d like to participate in Harmonic’s industry-leading stock strategies as a part of their existing brokerage account
  • Those who understand that investing is not a speculative short-term game, but is a contest that is won by methodical behavior and disciplined thinking

Personal Notes

Kevin and Kenn are enjoying their summertime hobbies now that the season’s in full swing. Kevin and his family enjoyed a two week respite in Hawaii and he’s proud that as of last week all three of his sons have scored holes-in-one (although he’s a bit piqued that he hasn’t.) Kenn and his significant other Tina Funkhouser have enjoyed visits to and from their respective parents: They spent their Independence Day weekend in Challis with her family, while Kenn’s mom and dad stopped in Boise for a few days in the midst of their post-retirement circumnavigation of the US. 

While the weather’s a little hot for our taste we know it won’t be long before the temperatures, and the economy and markets, shift once again.  It occurs to us that the old saying about the weather in the Rockies – “If you don’t like it, just wait 5 minutes…” – applies to other subjects as well.

Our best to all for a healthy, enjoyable and profitable third quarter.

 Kevin A. Jones, CFA                                        Kenn Lamson, CFA

Author: Chris

Comments: 0

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become increasingly popular since they were introduced in the United States in the mid-1990s. Their tax efficiencies and relatively low investing costs have attracted investors who like the idea of combining the diversification of mutual funds with the trading flexibility of stocks. ETFs can fill a unique role in your portfolio, but you need to understand just how they work and the differences among the dizzying variety of ETFs now available.

What is an ETF?

Like a mutual fund, an exchange-traded fund pools the money of many investors and purchases a group of securities. Like index mutual funds, most ETFs are passively managed. Instead of having a portfolio manager who uses his or her judgment to select specific stocks, bonds, or other securities to buy and sell, both index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds attempt to replicate the performance of a specific index.

However, a mutual fund is priced once a day, when the fund’s net asset value is calculated after the market closes. If you buy after that, you will receive the next day’s closing price. By contrast, an ETF is priced throughout the day and can be bought on margin or sold short–in other words, it’s traded just as a stock is.

How ETFs invest

Since their inception, most ETFs have invested in stocks or bonds, buying the shares represented in a particular index. For example, an ETF might track the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500, or a bond index. Other ETFs invest in hard assets–for example, gold bullion. In such cases, a commodity or precious-metals ETF may buy futures contracts or quantities of bullion. With the rapid proliferation of ETFs in recent years, if there’s an index, there’s a good chance there’s an ETF that invests in it.

The new wave of ETFs

New and unique indexes are being developed every day. As a result, ETFs that might seem similar–for example, two funds that invest in large-cap stocks–can actually be quite different. Many indexes define which securities are included based on their market capitalization–the number of shares outstanding times the price per share. However, other indexes and the ETFs that mimic them may select or weight securities within the index based on fundamental factors, such as a stock’s dividend yield.

Why is weighting important? Because it can affect the impact that individual securities have on the fund’s result. For example, an index that is weighted by market cap will be more affected by underperformance at a large-cap company than it would be by an underperforming company with a smaller market cap. That’s because the large-cap company would represent a larger share of the index. However, if the index weighted each security equally, each would have an equal impact on the index’s performance.

Pros and Cons of Exchange-Traded Funds

Pros
ETFs can be traded throughout the day as price fluctuates
ETFs can be bought on margin, sold short, or traded using stop orders and limit orders, just as stocks can
ETFs do not have to hold cash or buy and sell securities to meet redemption demands by fund investors
Annual expenses are often lower, which can be especially important for long-term investors
Because ETFs typically trade securities infrequently, they have lower annual taxable distributions than a mutual fund
Cons
Dollar-cost averaging will require paying repeated commissions and will increase investing costs
If an ETF is organized as a unit investment trust, delays in reinvesting its dividends may hamper returns
An ETF doesn’t necessarily trade at its net asset value, and bid-ask spreads may be wide for thinly traded issues or in volatile markets

More and more new indexes are being introduced, many of which cover narrow niches of the market, or use novel rules to choose securities. Many so-called rules-based ETFs are beginning to take on aspects of actively managed funds–for example, by limiting the percentage of the fund that can be devoted to a single security or industry.

The cost advantages and tradeoffs of ETFs

As indicated above, one of the reasons ETFs have gained ground with investors is because of their low annual expenses. Passive index investing means an ETF doesn’t require a portfolio manager or a research staff to select securities; that reduces the fund’s overhead. Also, investing in an index means that trades are generally made only when the index itself changes. As a result, the trading costs required by frequent buying and selling of securities in the fund are minimized.

However, don’t forget that you’ll pay a commission each time you buy or sell ETF shares. That means a one-time lump-sum investment in an ETF will be more cost-effective than dollar-cost averaging, which involves frequent, regular investments over time.

ETFs and taxes

ETFs can be relatively tax efficient. Because it trades so infrequently, an ETF typically distributes few capital gains during the year. In the past, there have been times when some investors found themselves paying taxes on capital gains generated by a mutual fund, even though the value of their fund may actually have dropped. Though it’s not impossible for an ETF to have capital gains, ETFs generally can minimize the ongoing capital gains taxes you’ll pay.

Just how much impact can reducing taxes have over the long term? More than you might think. Even a 1% difference in your return can be significant. For example, if you invest $50,000 and earn an average annual return of 5% (compounded monthly), you would have a pretax amount of $82,350 after 10 years. Even a 1% increase in that return would give you $90,970 at the end of that time. (This hypothetical example is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any particular investment. Actual results will vary.)

Make sure you consider just how an ETF’s returns will be taxed. Depending on how the fund is organized and what it invests in, returns could be taxed as short-term capital gains, ordinary income, or even (in the case of gold and silver ETFs) as collectibles, all of which are taxed at higher rates than long-term capital gains.

What are some other reasons investors use ETFs?

  • To get exposure to a particular industry or sector of the market. Because the minimum investment in an ETF is the cost of a single share, ETFs can be a low-cost way to make a diversified investment in alternative investments, a particular investing style, or geographic region.
  • To limit losses. Being able to set a stop-loss limit on your ETF shares can help you manage potential losses. A stop-loss order instructs your broker to sell your position if the shares fall to a certain price. If the ETF’s price falls, you’ve minimized your losses. If its price rises over time, you could increase the stop-loss figure accordingly. That lets you pursue potential gains while setting a limit on the amount you can lose.

How to evaluate an ETF

1) Look at the index it tracks. Understand what the index consists of and what rules it follows in selecting and weighting the securities in it.

2) Look at how long the fund and/or its underlying index have been in existence, and if possible, how both have performed in good times and bad.

3) Look at the fund’s expense ratios. The more straightforward its investing strategy, the lower expenses are likely to be. An index using futures contracts is likely to have higher expenses than one that simply replicates the S&P 500.

Author: Chris

Comments: 0

Join us May 20th from 5-6:30PM at the Surprise Valley Farmhouse to hear Kevin and Kenn discuss their thoughts on the markets, the economy and the benefits of working with an independent advisor. 

Each attendee will be given a coupon for discounted tickets to any 2010 Idaho Shakespeare Festival Performance!

Keep an eye out for the postcard invitation in your mailbox and we look forward to seeing you May 20th. 

 

Author: Chris

Comments: 0

See Kenn’s short interview concerning the economic turmoil in Greece.

Author: Chris

Comment: 1

Kenn was featured as the “Real Story” on April 10, 2010.  Listen to his interview and commentary. 

Wright Stuff Radio Show

If you have difficulty with the audio feed click here.

Author: Chris

Comments: 0

Harmonic Notes – http://p0.vresp.com/dJJsHU

Author: Kenn Lamson

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As even a casual observer would recognize, there are hundreds of pieces of economic data available from various departments within the Federal government and private research firms. There’s also lots of anecdotal information, too.  Unfortunately, as a relatively young (17 month anniversary is tomorrow, 3 April!) investment and research firm we don’t have time or the patience to try to analyze and write about what we find interesting, much less every thing that’s available. It’s clear, though, that some data are more important than others, because:

  •  they have a higher information content,
  • their methodology is more robust,
  • they’re more timely,
  • they tend to “move the market”,
  • or they’re familiar to the public at large.

With the able assistance of intern Vu Ngo, a senior majoring in finance at Boise State University, we’ve “separated the economic wheat from the chaff” by creating a list of about 15 indicators on which our research will focus.

We segmented our list by the component of the economy about which it informs us. The list looks like this:

CONSUMER

  • Retail Sales
  • Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
  • New & Existing Home Sales
  • Consumer Credit
  • Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (aka consumer spending)
  • Unemployment Situation
  • Consumer Price Index
  • S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index

BUSINESS

  • ISM Manufacturing Index
  • ISM Service Index
  • Durable Goods Orders
  • Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
  • Productivity and Costs

FOREIGN TRADE

  • International Trade

OVERALL MACROECONOMIC ACTIVITY

  • GDP
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index
  • Economic Cycle Research Institute Weekly Leading Index

Of course we’ll keep our finger on the pulse of other data, and this list may change if items lose their efficacy. We think, however, it strikes a good balance between data overload and having too narrow a focus.