Author: Kenn Lamson

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As a follow-on to my last post, here’s a graphic courtesy of ThomsonReuters showing the credit rating of 126 of the world’s nations.

The full article is available here.

hat tip: Ritholtz.com

Author: Kenn Lamson

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Another Andy Borowitz insta-classic:

Controversial Law Draws Howls of Protest from Lawmakers

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report) – A government think-tank today proposed a controversial new law, “No Politician Left Behind,” which would pay congressmen solely on the basis of performance.

The law, which was proposed by the University of Minnesota’s Institute of Government, “would make a serious dent in the Federal deficit because few if any congressmen would ever have to be paid,” said the Institute’s director, Davis Logsdon.

“Right now, congressmen get paid even when they storm out of budget negotiations in a hissy fit,” Mr. Logsdon said.  “Under this new law, the rule would be, no budget, no paycheck.”

The idea of being paid per accomplishment drew howls of protest from lawmakers, many claiming that if the law were enacted it would result in their financial ruin.

“If passed, this law would be tantamount to the establishment of ‘Work Panels,’ which would determine whether individual congressmen are accomplishing anything,” said Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA).  “I, for one, would be in deep, deep trouble.”

“I’m fairly sure that this law is unconstitutional,” said Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). “Now, I have never actually read the Constitution, but if this law were passed I would probably be forced to read it or live in a cardboard box.”

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said that creating performance standards for lawmakers was “an insult to the institution of Congress.”

“We have spent millions of dollars, some of it out of our own pockets, to get to Washington,” he said.  “We did not come here to be treated like teachers.”

Author: Kenn Lamson

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I haven’t written much, recently at least, about the continuing drama in the Eurozone. In early 2010 when the story first broke, Kevin and I commented in several pieces (here, here, here, here, and here), and I was interviewed on local television as the riots in Greece first erupted (see video here). In short, it was pretty obvious a year ago that the problems in Greece and many other European nations weren’t going away easily or soon. My guess is that they’ll get past this crisis by a combination of austerity (both elective, at least on the part of grim and shell-shocked politicians, and forced, via the bond market) and “kicking the can down the road”, continuing the time-honored tradition of avoiding a crisis only to set the stage for greater calamity in the future.

That said, I learned today, from the blog of comedian Andy Borowitz, the Greek government may have hit upon a unique way of repaying their debts: A giant horse.

Greece Offers to Repay Loans with Giant Horse

Steed Wheeled Into Brussels at Night

BRUSSELS (The Borowitz Report) – In what many are hailing as a breakthrough solution to Greece’s crippling debt crisis, Greece today offered to repay loans from the European Union nations by giving them a gigantic horse.

Finance ministers from sixteen EU nations awoke in Brussels this morning to find that a huge wooden horse had been wheeled into the city center overnight.

The horse, measuring several stories in height, drew mixed responses from the finance ministers, many of whom said they would have preferred a cash repayment of the EU’s bailout.

But German Chancellor Andrea Merkel said she “welcomed the beautiful wooden horse,” adding, “What harm could it possibly do?”

Author: Kenn Lamson

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My first exposure to the comedy of the late George Carlin was as a junior-high aged kid. A couple of buddies and I howled with laughter to Carlin’s all-time classic “Seven Words You Can’t Say on Television” (partly because we were WAY too young to use that kind of language and partly because of the brilliance with which Carlin laid bare society’s absurdity.)

I was intrigued by a recent guest post on Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog demonstrating comedians’ investment wisdom, particularly that of George Carlin.  Here are a few investment maxims and a related Carlin quote:

Don’t confuse causation with correlation. “Death is caused by swallowing small amounts of saliva over a long period of time.”

Don’t try to outsmart the investor herd. “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

Value your own perspective. “Some people see the glass half full. Others see it half empty.
I see a glass that’s twice as big as it needs to be.”

The rest of the post is here.

The guest post, by the way, is from financial planner and Kent Thune, whose website The Financial Philosopher is educational, thought-provoking and engaging.

Author: Kenn Lamson

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Gunter Loffler, of the Department of Mathematics and Economics in the University of Ulm (Not “ummm”, Ulm, in Germany. I didn’t know where it was either.) published a recent paper postulating a connection between the construction of world’s tallest skyscrapers and financial market returns.  His thesis is, essentially, that periods of time when humans have the hubris (and commercial real estate funding) to build massive skyscrapers are the same periods when stock prices become overvalued.

Looks like he’s actually on to something. From the abstract:

This papers shows that construction starts of record-breaking skyscrapers predict subsequent US stock returns. In the three to five years after the construction of a record-breaking new skyscraper began, per annum stock market returns are around 10 percentage points lower than in other years. The predictive ability is significant and relatively stable.

In fact, the predictive power of his “skyscraper index” (my phrase, not his) actually beats more commonly used metrics. Again, from the abstract:

It exceeds that of alternatives such as the prevailing historical mean, predictions based on dividend ratios, and recently suggested combination forecasts. The findings are robust against a wide range of specifications. Further analyses show that tower building also predicts international stock market returns.

If I’d have just known that it was as simple as selling stocks when the construction for new world’s tallest skyscrapers was begun…

The paper’s abstract is here, and the full paper is here: SSRN-id1787517

hat tip: CXO Advisory

Author: Kenn Lamson

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Although I don’t disagree…

Today from NPR’s Planet Money series (one of the better pieces of investigative / educational journalism extant):

Gold: The 4,000-Year-Old Bubble

Read and/or listen to the story here.

My earlier thoughts on gold (soon to be updated).

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UPDATE: Tuesday 24 May 2011

Column in today’s NY Times amplifies the point made by the NPR story, and in my earlier scribblings:

“Gold Is Not An Investment”

Author: Kenn Lamson

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A friend forwarded this humorous mini-rant that sounds like something my friends from Challis Idaho (or other parts of the American West, and in the South where I was raised) would offer. Good for a chuckle on a beautiful late Spring afternoon.

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1. Pull your pants up. You look like an idiot.

2. Turn your cap right, your head ain’t crooked.

3. Let’s get this straight: it’s called a ‘gravel road.’ I drive a pickup truck because I want to. No matter how slow you drive, you’re gonna get dust on your Lexus. Drive it or get out of the way.

4. They are cattle. That’s why they smell like cattle. They smell like money to us. Get over it. Don’t like it? Take I-84, go east or west. You’ll find I-5 or I-15, go north or south. Just pick one and go.

5. So you have a $60,000 car. We’re impressed. We have $250,000 Combines we drive only 3 weeks a year.

6. Every person in the Wild West waves. It’s called being friendly. Try to understand the concept.

7. If that cell phone rings while a bunch of geese/pheasants/ducks/doves are comin’ in during a hunt, we WILL shoot it outta your hand. You better hope you don’t have it up to your ear at the time.

8. Yeah. We eat trout, salmon, deer and elk. You really want sushi and caviar? It’s available at the corner bait shop.

9. The ‘Opener’ refers to the first day of deer season. It’s a religious holiday held the closest Saturday to the first of November.

10. We open doors for women. That’s applied to all women, regardless of age.

11. No, there’s no ‘vegetarian special’ on the menu. Order steak, or you can order the Chef’s Salad and pick off the 2 pounds of ham and turkey.

12. When we fill out a table, there are three main dishes: meats, vegetables, and breads. We use three spices: salt, pepper, and ketchup! Oh, yeah … We don’t care what you folks in Cincinnati call that stuff you eat… IT AIN’T REAL CHILI!!

13. You bring ‘Coke’ into my house, it better be brown, wet and served over ice. You bring ‘Mary Jane’ into my house, she better be cute, know how to shoot, drive a truck & have long hair.

14. College and High School Football is as important here as the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Lakers & the Knicks. They’re a dang site more fun to watch.

15. Yeah, we have golf courses. But don’t hit the water hazards – it spooks the fish.

16. Turn down that blasted car stereo! That thumpity-thump ain’t music, anyway. We don’t want to hear it anymore than we want to see your boxers! Refer back to #1!

Author: Kenn Lamson

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Andy Borowitz is one of the funniest guys around. I don’t suggest this kind of thing often, but the faux news he distributes through his email list and Twitter feed are worth subscribing to if you enjoy quick-witted irreverence.  Today’s post:

NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report) – A threat to the fledgling presidential campaign of Donald Trump emerged today, as a group of activists charged that Mr. Trump is not eligible to hold the nation’s highest office because his hair does not originate from the U.S.

The group, who call themselves “Balders,” claim that the hair-like substance that crowns Mr. Trump’s head is from a foreign country, which would mean that the candidate is less than one hundred percent American.

“Time and time again, Donald Trump has refused to produce a certificate of authenticity for his hair,” said Leeann Selwyn, a leading Balder.  “This is tantamount to a comb-over of the truth.”


But if in fact Mr. Trump’s distinctive mane turns out to be of foreign origin, such a revelation need not be fatal to his presidential hopes, says Professor Davis Logsdon, who has studied the history of presidential hair at the University of Minnesota.

“Remember, several of our greatest early presidents, like George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, had hair that originated elsewhere,” Mr. Logsdon says.  “The only thing that could kill Trump politically is if his hair turns out to be from France.”

At a GOP event in Iowa, Mr. Trump made no reference to the Balders controversy, and instead sounded an upbeat theme: “If I am given the chance to do the same magic I did for NBC, America will be the number four country in the world.”

In a piece of good news for Mr. Trump, a new poll showed a majority of likely voters agreeing with the statement, “Donald Trump being sworn in as President would be a great last scene in a Planet of the Apes remake.”

Author: Kenn Lamson

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Remember the shockwaves created by Lehman’s collapse in September 2008? (I certainly do – I phoned from the Sawtooth wilderness to coach my panicking then-employer how to buy 1 week T-bills at negative interest rates.)  While it’s a little hyperbolic, Annie Lowry’s piece in today’s Slate.com proposes a similar global market reaction if the US defaults on its Treasury debt.

Among the cascade of problems she foresees on that fateful day:

  • sharply higher interest rates
  • dumping of Treasuries onto skittish global bond markets, fueling a “run on the bank” similar to Sept ‘08
  • widening of the repo “haircut” that causes further evaporation of market liquidity
  • collateral calls on projects where Treasuries were presented as collateral
  • money market funds “breaking the buck”, and subsequent massive withdrawal of investor funds from that market

I’d add to the list the headache of bank capital and liquidity levels coming into question since many financial institutions maintain large Treasury note positions. Municipalities, pension funds and other large institutional investors are also required to hold certain percentages of their pools in high quality assets, so would feel the effect of deteriorating credit quality (not to mention the painful price markdown.)

Read the full article here.

ADDENDUM 5.38pm MST, 25 APRIL 11:  A JP Morgan research piece echoing most of Lowry’s points can be read here -> JPM Domino Effect

Author: Kenn Lamson

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This post from BusinessPundit.com is kind of funny, but with an unsettling kernel of truth.

http://www.businesspundit.com/10-things-you-can-do-to-prepare-for-economic-collapse/